“It may not sound like much, but the difference is important.”
In a $17 trillion economy, it is a difference of $170 billion per year, which has major implications
for corporate profits, worker pay and even the federal government’s bottom line.
Rather it appears as if the pace of growth in 2017 will not be much faster than it was last year, or the year before that.
So even as the Commerce Department on Friday offered an upward revision of the first-quarter growth rate — to 1.2 percent
from the 0.7 percent cited last month — other forecasters were lowering their sights for the current quarter.
It’s Looking Less Likely -
By NELSON D. SCHWARTZMAY 26, 2017
The big economic bounce that some experts have confidently predicted for later in the year may turn out to be only a small bump.
An analysis by the research firm Macroeconomic Advisers shows
that at the start of six of the past seven years, experts overestimated just how much gross domestic product would grow in the year ahead.
Change at annual rate
Typically, quarterly data is volatile, but in recent years, first-quarter growth estimates have been especially unpredictable.
“We’re still on track for a 2 percent growth economy, give or take a little,
but not a 3 percent economy,” said Diane Swonk, a veteran independent economist in Chicago.
