Trump’s Trade Endgame Could Be the Undoing of Global Rules
U.S. bilateral trade balances for trade in goods, 2016 BILLIONS 20 LARGEST COUNTRIES China – $347.0 Japan – 68.8 Germany – 64.7 Mexico – 64.4 Italy – 28.6 Korea – 27.6 India – 24.4 France – 15.6 Switzerland
– 13.6 Indonesia – 13.2 11.0 Canada – Russia – 8.7 3.0 Spain – SURPLUS Britain + 1.0 Saudi Arabia + 1.1 Turkey + 1.3 Argentina + 3.9 Brazil + 4.1 Australia + 12.7 Netherlands + 23.6 OCT. 31, 2017
While emasculating the trade organization may seem foolhardy, trade experts warn
that blowing up international trade law may be the only way the Trump administration could pursue its quixotic goal of eliminating the bilateral trade deficits that it has with most countries.
rules, which include a tariff ceiling of 3.5 percent, on average, for Mexican
exports to the United States and 7.1 percent for American exports to Mexico.
Mr. Lighthizer might remember that after Canada, Japan
and the European Community agreed in the early 1980s to voluntary restraint agreements limiting exports of steel to the United States, producers in countries like South Korea and South Africa simply picked up the slack.
According to a trade diplomat who is aware of the goings-on, American negotiators have warned Mexicans and Canadians
that if the United States leaves Nafta, they shouldn’t expect trade relations to simply snap back to W.T.O.
It is unclear whether Mr. Trump has the legal authority to pull the United States out of the trade regime governed by W.T.O., or even out of Nafta.
Today the United States accounts for only about 13 percent of world trade, down from almost a quarter in the 1980s.
What’s most mystifying to foreign diplomats and trade policy experts is how the Trump administration conceives
the endgame of bringing down a legal system the United States spent so much time and effort to build.
